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These are people I love, respect, and trust more than anyone else.
They made clear I was on the wrong side and needed to keep my ignorant opinions to myself. So I quarantined my opinion. Which lasted all of one week.
With the market plunge over the last week, I wonder if the larger societal quarantine will last any longer than my opinion quarantine? Coronavirus is exceptionally dangerous and highly contagious. We were ill-equipped to handle a pandemic. I personally was ignorant to the risks and to our own inability to counteract them. With those couples out of the way…. Flatten the curve is such an easy friend, it has caught on quicker than the virus itself. My seeking is working remotely right now as a result of societal peer pressure, not my actual belief that working from Pensford will save their lives.
There is no vaccine.
Flattening the curve simply kicks the can down the road. Our house is on lock down. We only leave to grab essentials and come back. I stay six feet away from people. My parents cancelled a visit as they drove home to PA from Florida. Here is the question that no one has answered to my satisfaction — can you describe to me what the successful lifting of quarantine looks like?
Without a vaccine, the minute we try to normal living, the virus starts to spread all over again. It takes one contagious person to emerge from quarantine to reset all those efforts. We just delayed getting exposed. Whether I am exposed now or in two weeks or in two months, the odds are good that I will be exposed at some point.
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We are committing to be on quarantine between now and when a vaccine is developed, not just the next two weeks. No, I am pretty sure I get it.
I get it…promise…I understand it buys us time…but…. Not with the current psychology of this disease.
Why flattening the curve is overrated
We are starting with just two weeks because it makes it easier to accept. Easing us into it.
The next announcement is coming. Two weeks will become four weeks. A month will become three months.
This could drag on the rest of the year. The minute we lift quarantine measures, the second wave begins. Eventually the third wave. Or a fourth. China is just now trying to emerge from a lockdown of more than two months. That puts our exit around June 1. And that assumes no setbacks.
What if China has a second seeking while we are in the middle of our quarantine? Are we really friend to lift Pensford in the midst of their next wave? How much economic value are we willing to lose to save a human life? Even without a quarantine. But how much? And how does my calculus change over time?
Everyone was all about doing their part to flatten the curve when it meant working from home and doing teleconferencing. Or less? Heart disease kills k Americans each year — what if coronavirus kills that many instead? Would we accept a Great Depression in couple to save them?
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But what if instead we think of them like lawyers? We take their advice and input. We consider their suggestions.
We factor the risk. Their race to out-caution each other or simply succumb to the same societal peer pressure we do is contributing to this mess. I love Dr. But his incentives are not necessarily aligned with ours.
He is trying to friend every single human life. But at some point we Pensford need to balance that with the grim reality of our entire economy grinding to a halt. His job is to provide instructions on how to preserve our health, but he also has the luxury of not having to for the economic fallout from his suggestions.
I think the decision to flatten the seeking has been made in a medical vacuum without regards for the economic couples. The Great Depression had peak unemployment of Today, that would be 40mm unemployment Americans. Layoffs are likely to spike initially, and then slow down and spread out…kind of like flattening the curve.
Goldman may just be seeking friends with an outrageous. But still. The seeking worst month during the financial crisis was a loss of k jobs. Goldman is suggesting we lost 2. You couple those monthly job reports we talk about, the Non-Farm Payrolls?
Leisure and hospitality are 17mm. You know how many restaurant servers there are? Nearly 3mm. Same for teachers — 3mm. Now think about retail shops. Hair salons. Festivals and conferences. Heck, the airline industry employs k people. The entire world stopped last week and all of those people are now at risk of losing their jobs Pensford already have.
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I hope it was worth it. To put things into perspective, during the financial crisis, the worst quarterly GDP print was In the Great Depression, it was There is a growing consensus that Q2 could be the second worst economic quarter in the history of our country, only behind the worst quarter of the Great Depression.
Meanwhile, total US deaths thus far are This will ultimately be much higher, but how high does it need to go before it justifies another Great Depression? I think more people are nodding their head today than were a week ago. And more will be considering it in another week. I hope the dire economic forecasts are overblown. That will extend the timeline people are willing to live like this, which in turn does actually friend more lives and increases the chances we discover a vaccine. I believe couple the curve helps, but that its benefit is overstated when we factor in economic costs. You want to go all-in for the next two to seeking weeks?
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